← Back

Gold Isn't a Bet Against the World — It's a Bet Against Chaos

Gold is a strange asset. It sits in vaults, doing nothing, earning nothing, costing money to store. Warren Buffett famously mocked it, pointing out that if you took all the gold ever mined, you could buy all the farmland in the United States and have money left over — and the farmland would produce crops every year. He's not wrong. And yet, gold has been a store of value for thousands of years, surviving the collapse of empires, the debasement of currencies, and every financial crisis in between. To dismiss gold as a 'barbarous relic' is to ignore what it actually does in a portfolio: it provides insurance against the moments when everything else stops working.

Let's be clear about what gold is not. It's not a growth asset. Over the very long term, gold has roughly kept pace with inflation. That's it. If you're looking for something that will make you rich, gold is not your answer. But if you're looking for something that will preserve your purchasing power when paper assets are melting down, gold has a remarkable track record. During the 2008 financial crisis, when the S&P 500 fell 38%, gold rose about 5%. During the inflationary 1970s, when stocks went nowhere for a decade, gold multiplied in value. It's not a perfect hedge in every crisis, but it's been a reliable one often enough to earn its place.

The modern case for gold rests on a simple observation: governments around the world are running enormous deficits, and central banks are printing money to finance them. This has been going on for decades, but it accelerated dramatically during the pandemic, and it shows no signs of stopping. When the supply of paper money increases faster than the supply of goods and services, the value of that paper money declines. Gold, by contrast, has a limited supply. You can't print more of it. That's why central banks themselves hold gold — over 35,000 tons of it, according to the World Gold Council. They understand something that many retail investors don't: gold is the ultimate backstop for a fiat currency system that is perpetually being tested.

I've heard all the objections. Gold doesn't generate cash flow. True. Gold is volatile. Also true — it had a 45% drawdown from 2011 to 2015. Gold is difficult to value. Absolutely. But these objections miss the point. You don't own gold because you expect it to outperform stocks over thirty years. You own gold because there will be periods — perhaps long periods — when stocks are getting crushed, bonds are falling, and the world feels like it's coming apart. In those moments, gold often shines. It provides liquidity when you need it most. It gives you the psychological fortitude to hold your other assets instead of selling them at the bottom.

The right question to ask about gold is not 'should I own it?' but 'how much should I own?' For most investors, the answer is somewhere between 5% and 10% of a portfolio. That's enough to make a meaningful difference during a crisis without dragging down returns too much during normal times. It's also an amount that most people can hold without panicking during gold's own bear markets, which can be long and painful. If you can't handle gold's volatility, you probably shouldn't own it. But if you can, it's one of the few assets that truly diversifies a portfolio because it behaves so differently from stocks and bonds.

There's also a deeper, almost philosophical case for gold. It's an asset that exists outside the financial system. It's not dependent on any company's earnings, any government's promise, or any algorithm's performance. In a world that is increasingly digital, increasingly financialized, and increasingly complex, there's something reassuring about an asset that you can hold in your hand. I'm not suggesting you bury gold bars in your backyard. But I am suggesting that a small allocation to gold can help you sleep better at night — and that's worth something that no spreadsheet can capture.

On this site, you can test gold's role for yourself. Compare it to stocks, bonds, crypto, and cash over different time periods. See how it performed during the 2008 crisis, the COVID crash, the inflationary 2022. Notice the moments when gold zigged while everything else zagged. Then decide whether a small slice of gold belongs in your portfolio. The answer, for most people who look at the data honestly, is yes.